The holidays may be nearly over, but with wallets tightening worldwide, perhaps now is as good a time as ever to reflect (how often does that word seem to crop up in year-end blog posts?) on all the big-picture, money-draining yet far-sighted and inspirational solar projects to have emerged from the developing world this year. The maudlin nature of that statement will hopefully be counterbalanced by the actual merit of the projects or plans listed below, as we draw up a rough catalogue of some of the most exciting stories to have come out of developing nations in 2008. This list is in no way complete—it’s a scattered survey rather than a comprehensive compendium—but aims instead to look at some of the great projects, big and small, that have appeared on the grapevine this year. So here’s a spot of sunshine, in the midst of news of recession and following reports earlier this year of shrunken solar subsidies in Europe.

In no particular order:

1. Construction for Masdar City—that solar-powered, zero-carbon ecotopia nestled in the sun-soaked dunes of Arabian desert, near Abu Dhabi—commences in February. Slated for completion in 2013 as the world’s largest carbon-neutral city, the car-free community aims to act as a hub for academic and corporate research on renewable energies and will produce all of its energy from the sun.

2. A retired Canadian business executive develops solar-powered hearing aids for use in developing nations. With some 20,000 people in 30 countries using the SolarAid, which costs less than $100 apiece and whose even cheaper rechargeable battery ($1) lasts for two to three years, Howard Weinstein not only develops objects to help the hearing-impaired hear, he also enlists many to help with the production process.

3. For India, a number of solar firsts, as well as the unveiling of a National Action Plan on Climate Change. Among other plans, the NAPCC outlines its National Solar Mission, in which it sets targets of 1,000 MW/year of photovoltaic production and 1,000 MW/year of solar thermal power generation. In light of India’s high insolation potential and large population of energy users, is this a match made in heaven? Hopefully.

4. Beijing’s Green Olympics. Well, “green,” considering the environmental repercussions of any large-scale industrial project (especially one so gargantuan as that undertaken by the PRC). But with 80 to 90 percent of the venue-based streetlights and 90 percent of the hot water used by athletes in the Olympic Village solar-powered, and venues such as the Bird’s Nest coated in solar panels—not to mention the bevy of other renewable energies utilized at various other stadiums—the energy-efficient nature of these buildings, coupled with their longevity as they are recycled into performance stadiums or luxury malls, represent a new breed of construction in China, if not the world. According to an official, the measures undertaken by the ‘Green Olympics’ were expected to reduce emissions by 1 and 1.2 million tons throughout the event.

5. Winners of an MIT business competition create solar-powered refrigeration systems for poor communities in India. With power outages a problem almost worldwide, Promethean Power Systems has on their hands an invention with a wide range of applications, in a variety of locales.

6. The EU’s proposed plan for a €45 billion European supergrid meant to power all of Europe. This plan would, among other things, involve enormous farms of solar panels in the Sahara Desert. Due to the intensity of the Saharan sunlight, the photovoltaic panels in Africa are predicted to generate three times as much energy as comparable panels in Europe—a productivity level that has undoubtedly not gone amiss by Prime Minister Gordon Brown and President Nicolas Sarkozy, who have both lent support to the proposal.

7. Canadian start-up Morgan Solar Inc. develops a low-cost solar panel for developing nations that utilizes a “light-guided solar optic,” a riff on traditional concentrated photovoltaic systems. The solar panels (which are still in the prototype stage) are lightweight and use low-cost materials, according to Nicolas Morgan, leader of the company’s business development and brother to founder Jean Paul Morgan. At this point, however, shriveling funding poses the largest threat to the project’s ultimate success.

Please feel free to add to the list!

Despite reports from the National Bureau of Economic Research that the U.S. has officially been in recession all year, the solar industry seems poised to soldier on. The evidence? The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) just announced plans to relocate the Solar Expo 2009 from San Jose to Anaheim. The facility in San Jose, apparently, isn’t big enough to accommodate the 27,000+ expected to attend next year’s event:

Attendance at what was already the industry’s largest solar conference and expo in North America jumped from 12,500 in 2007 to 23,200 in 2008, according to the Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA) and Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), the show organizers.  The new location will be able to meet the increased demand for hotel accommodations, exhibition and meeting space, and will allow the event to deliver a positive experience for all participants while maintaining its reputation for excellence within the industry.

The trade groups originally planned to hold the 6th annual event in San Jose, California.  However, due to the unprecedented growth and anticipated increase in demand due to the extension of the federal investment tax credit in the U.S., a larger venue was required to meet the needs of the event exhibitors and attendees in the upcoming year.  The exhibit floor is expected to sell out quickly as between 650 and 800 companies from around the world gather to showcase their technology.  Overall attendance is expected to top 27,000 in 2009.

Like in any industry, solar manufacturers and other solar professionals face challenges and opportunities. In the first category, cheap oil (currently trading at about $40 a barrel) may erode the incentive to develop alternative sources of energy, like solar. Cheap electricity — say, from new nuclear power plants — would increase price competition. And, as the present recession continues, lending will remain tight and consumer demand may weaken.

So have all of those will-be attendees (including us) gone completely mad? Are we naive? Delusional? As it turns out, there are a number of factors in the “opportunities” category suggesting that the solar energy market may hold up, despite ongoing challenges.

First, and noted above by the SEIA, is the recently extended investment tax credit (ITC). In short, the ITC makes it easier for individuals and businesses to shoulder the costs of installing a solar energy system. Importantly, the ITC has been extended for eight years, which provides regulatory certainty over a longer time frame, enabling solar companies to plan accordingly. Moreover, the credit, worth up to 30 percent of final installation costs, is no longer limited by a nominal dollar-amount cap (as was the case for residential systems up ’til now — read here for more details). The bottom line: the ITC will make it easier for consumers, nationwide, to purchase a solar energy system.

Second, many in the renewable energy sector are expecting big things from the incoming Obama Administration. As relayed by Reuters,

“The biggest challenge for the next energy secretary is to develop, support, and adopt clean energy policies that put Americans to work and reduce global warming pollution,” said Dan Weiss, energy expert at the Center for American Progress think tanks.

“The Energy Department must shift its mission to speeding the transformation to a clean energy economy, rather than finding new ways to concoct or burn fossil fuels,” Weiss said.

Weiss’s comments reflect a growing sentiment that America’s economic woes, and long-term energy demand growth, could/should be addressed through fiscal spending and investment in cleantech sectors. How much support the solar sector will actually get is anybody’s guess. But I’d wager that many of the companies that plan to attend the 2009 event are expecting more, not less, support than they’ve received under the current administration. Add to this a national climate policy, which is, in my mind, a plausible outcome within the next four years, and you’ve got a pretty robust case in support of solar’s prospects. Sure, 2009 is gonna be painful for many solar companies, but they won’t be alone in this regard: ’09 will be a trying year for companies across all sectors.

SEIA President Rhone Resch sums up the solar industry perspective in perfect public-relations-ese:

“Despite a challenging economic climate, we have gained significant momentum in the U.S., especially with the recent eight-year extension of the solar investment tax credit. Also, hopes are that a new administration with a commitment to renewable energy and the environment will enact policies that stimulate domestic solar manufacturing and installation, creating hundreds of thousands of permanent green jobs while increasing our energy independence and security.”

With oil prices volatile—teeter-tottering from a high of over $147 this July to $38 a barrel this week—and the world economy faring not much better, investing in solar is probably not the first thing on many people’s minds right now. Yet, dismal economic forecasts and industry difficulties—not to mention troubled state incentives—aside, a report from earlier this fall shows, pre-financial-meltdown, soaring growth for photovoltaic solar production that left (and is hopefully still leaving) a lot of room for potential.

The 2008 PV Status Report, released in September by the European Union’s Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy, gives an 142-page overview of the current activities in global solar cell production, including research, manufacturing and market implementation and shows large continued increases in global production. It states that, since 2003, total PV production grew in average by roughly 50 percent, while the thin film sector did so by around 80 percent. As it notes that most PV manufacturers are diversifying their production portfolios, it projects a 25 to 35 percent thin film market share by 2010 and lists three solar manufacturers (First Solar, Showa Shell Sekiyu and Best Solar) that will either achieve or aim to achieve an annual production capacity of at least 1 GW by 2010, with a number of other producers hoping to hit 500 MW in that time frame. It also notes that, in spite of the stresses from the credit crunch toward the end of 2007, new funding for renewable energies increased by 60 percent ($148 billion) from 2006 to 2007 worldwide, the largest portion of which went to solar ($28.6 billion, or 19 percent). The stock market sellout of September 2008 notwithstanding, the report predicts a worldwide production capacity of anywhere from 6 GW (conservative scenario) to 17 GW by 2010, with a tentative estimate of 35 GW should all manufacturers meet their production goals. This would, in turn, lead to an oversupply, in which case steep cost reductions could be in order.

Although Germany, Spain and Japan take top honors in the report for the sizes of their solar markets (1,100, 341 and 210 MW, respectively), the United States is not far behind Japan, at 205 MW. The Chinese and Taiwanese markets remain immature but the report is optimistic about growth. (Other big developing countries, such as Brazil or India, were not mentioned in the report.)

Granted, the report was released in September 2008, when the economic crisis was just beginning to loom and its depth not yet apparent. However, how much salt is too much salt to take with the optimism of the report? As it points out, European and international solar resources are in large supply and can’t be monopolized by one single country, and although new players may be deterred from entering and growing the market, plenty of the big shots have already finalized their production deals and have long since embarked on their ambitious manufacturing plans. Yes, they may have to scale them back in the interim. But they don’t have to stop everything completely.

As reported by Jan Ellen Spiegel of the New York Times,

Connecticut’s touted solar rebate program, which experts have pointed to as exemplary, may not be so perfect after all. Six months into its current two-year budget cycle, it is nearly out of cash, leaving homeowners, businesses, and nonprofit and governmental organizations that want to buy solar electric systems out of luck.

All that remains is money for residential solar leases, but there’s an income cap, and so far, they haven’t caught on.

This news comes after announced cutbacks in the per-watt rebate available to Connecticut residents and businesses who purchase solar energy systems. The Connecticut Clean Energy Fund may be a victim of its own success, but another main factor is likely also in play: the extension in October of the 30-percent federal investment tax credit (ITC). Citing the increased savings made possible by the ITC extension, Xcel Energy in early November outlined their plans to reduce solar rebates in Colorado, from $2.50 to $1.50 per watt.

For more info and background on shrinking state incentives, check out this previous post.

Los Angeles has recently given the green light to put on a spring ballot a solar plan that will have utility workers installing solar panels on rooftops and in parking lots across the city (the Department of Water and Power, the utility concerned, will own the PV systems installed). This will be great PR for solar and for the city, but critics are worried that the city has ignored severe warnings from a consulting firm about the plan’s feasibility. The firm’s report cited problems with the city’s infrastructure and resources as reasons it might encounter difficulties in actual implementation.

And tax payers aren’t sure how they feel, either, since the solar plan will be in large part funded by rate hikes for the Department of Water and Power. Voices against the plan have said that the solar plan is simply “a backdoor mechanism to make voters sign off on a huge package of DWP rate increases.” The DWP is claiming that the average taxpayer would see a hike of no more than 4% by 2011, while the consultancy report argues that the real number will be more like 12%. It’s a case of he-said, she-said, and tax payers still have a chance to make up their minds about it, as the measure isn’t being voted on until a March 3rd ballot.

Here at GetSolar, we spend a lot of time discussing rebates and tax credits that are available to residents and companies who install solar energy systems. The main reason is that, absent such incentives, solar PV systems don’t provide an attractive rate of return for your investment. Put differently, without some help from Uncle Sam and/or your state government, you’d be better off investing in stocks and bonds – or, in the throes of current market uncertainty, hoarding gold bars in that dusty nook behind the water heater in your basement.

Today, I provide a quick overview of other factors that will influence your system’s bottom line. Generally speaking, the following factors relate to a system’s expected performance in real-world conditions. If you’ve already gotten a detailed quote from a solar energy professional, you’ll likely recognize a few of them…

Keep reading! The article continues here.

Let’s face it, most of us have everything we need: shelter, food, an internet connection. Whether you’re still looking for the odd bit of gelt, stocking stuffers, major gifts, or a way to start the new year with a clean conscience, why not donate to a solar charity in honor of a friend or loved one? When it comes to charitable donations, you naturally want to choose an organization that’s reputable and resonates with you. We assume if you’re reading this website, you have a solid interest in the value of solar power. So consider giving to these worthy causes (and many more are to be found at a click of the search button):

• The Solar Electric Light Fund (SELF) seeks “to provide solar power and wireless communications to a quarter of the world’s population living in energy poverty“. Working with the belief that access to energy is “a human right”, SELF brings over 18 years of experience in renewables and community projects to install solar photovoltaic systems and provide “mesh” internet access in health centers, schools, and agricultural villages in many countries within Africa and Asia (not to mention two projects on domestic shores: the Navajo Nation and New Orleans). Headquarters: Washington, DC.
  
• SolarAid believes “that the two most important threats facing humanity today are climate change and global poverty.” To this end, the charity founded in 2006 focuses on providing solar power to sub-Saharan African communities. Solar power in these communities allows for water pumping, refrigeration (of food and medicines), and of course light and power for homes, businesses, and farms. SolarAid supports “DIY” solar projects and training as a more sustainable contribution than simply equipment. Headquarters: London, England.
• SolarCharities limits itself to one sphere: education. Believing that the next generation needs to grow up cognizant of the importance of renewable energy, this organization uses funds to establish photovoltaic systems on the roofs of public schools. This charity is on a very small scale indeed: its goal is a tiny $15k for 2008, and its aim right now is to take care of home base Appleton, Wisconsin first before expanding outwards. But you have to start somewhere, right? Headquarters: Appleton, WI.
• The Central American Solar Energy Project works with women in Central America to get solar cookers into their communities, educating them about community organization as well as providing a way to prepare food that saves both precious firewood and time. In an interesting twist on the solar oven org, CASEP works with the women involved to build each oven from locally available materials. Operating in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala Headquarters: Charlottesville, VA.
• ASES, the American Solar Energy Society, is a departure from the above charities. A nonprofit that works tirelessly to promote domestic research and adoption of solar technologies, ASES coordinates education, advocacy, and collaboration among its solar professional members, government officials, and the public. Headquarters: Boulder, CO.

So why spend $100 on a gold-plated electric pepper grinder for the person who has everything? (Don’t laugh. They exist.) Let your money give a real gift, to someone who really needs it, and make a statement about your support for the future of solar energy worldwide while you’re at it.

Although solar stocks have taken some sharp hits throughout the course of this fiscally rocky fall, there are some companies and investors who continue to see opportunities in solar R&D. Since long-term there’s no question that renewable technologies will take over the energy market, it makes sense for a company to get a headstart on the competition in a slow period if possible.

Yesterday, Dow Corning announced it would be making billion-dollar investments in solar through Hemlock Semiconductor, a joint venture with two Japanese companies. Included in the investment is the construction of a factory that will allow the corporation to add monosilane gas (used in thin-film solar) to its stock of available solar materials, and one new and one expanded polysilicon plant.

In Massachusetts, The Boston Globe reported that a couple local young companies are forging ahead with research on two very different types of solar cells. 1366 Technologies is working towards the production of higher-efficiency silicon solar panels whose greater performance would cut the cost of solar down from an industry standard $2.20/watt to just $1/watt, putting solar on equal footing (at last) with coal. Is it a pipe dream? Maybe. But if the MIT-affiliated 1366 is successful in boosting solar panel efficiency, there’s no doubt prices would come down a good deal. 1366 is changing components of the standard solar cell like the copper wiring and the shape of the collector area to work towards higher efficiency.

There are some folks who think silicon is a dead-end for solar cells. Wakonda Technologies is working on one of the alternatives, using gallium arsenide to produce ultra-thin, ultra-flexible solar cells manufactured using a rollout process (as the Globe points out in an analogy likely to be lost on readers twenty years from now, a process not unlike newspaper printing). With a goal of 30% efficiency–more than 10% higher than current silicon cells–the gallium arsenide approach is intriguing. Another Massachusetts research firm, Konarka Technologies, announced this week that it acquired $45 million in funding from the French company Total, making Total the largest shareholder. Konarka is concerned with thin-film solar plastics.

So considering that the solar sector took another plunge on Monday, it looks like some parts of the market are willing and able to look beyond the short-term and focus instead on the real long-term benefits of both solar, and getting ahead of the pack.

President-elect Barack Obama is expected to tap Steven Chu, current director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, for the top spot at DOE. As reported by the San Francisco Chronical,

The selection of Chu, who has led efforts to use solar energy in cars and to work with oil companies on biofuels, would signal a bold new direction in the United States’ response to climate change, critics of the Bush administration said Wednesday.

“The Chu pick is exciting because (he) will bring scientific rigor to the new administration’s energy policy,” said Daniel J. Weiss, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a liberal Washington think tank. “After the anti-science Bush administration, this is like going to a Mensa meeting after eight years of being trapped in the Flat Earth Society.”

Bipartisan jabs aside, it’s clear that Chu has some serious science chops. In 1997, he and two other physicists were awarded the Nobel Prize for developing methods to cool and trap atoms with the light from lasers. I don’t even know what this would entail, but it sounds cool. Most interesting, at least for me, is Chu’s work with Helios, an initiative aimed at producing power with solar technologies and storing it for use as transportation fuel. Given that transportation accounts for about a third of carbon-dioxide emissions in this country, it’s evident that cost-effective, low-carbon solutions must be developed if we’re to have any hope of addressing climate change.

IBM’s World Community Grid uses the computing power of more than a million home PCs worldwide to speed up the enormous calculations required in endeavors like new medical research. IBM has now teamed up with Harvard University in a unique project: devoting the World Community Grid’s processing power to finding a chemical compound that will produce more efficient photovoltaic cells. If a cheap organic compound could achieve anywhere near (or even half) the 20-30% efficiency of crystallized silicon, it would mean a real revolution in the solar market and a much brighter outlook for thorough deployment of the technology. The brains behind the partnership claim that this “virtual supercomputer” of home PC’s could cut research down from over two decades to a mere two years.

Source: Reuters