The stimulus package recently signed into law by President Obama provided a fascinating union of state and national concerns; the ongoing debates over the acceptance of federal funds that contain strict conditions still reflects this synergy. With the package’s legislative battles mostly fading into the horizon, however, the next big landmarks for solar are going to sort themselves out into separate spheres. State concerns, especially in key solar regions facing budget troubles, are going to be one very big piece of the renewable energy puzzle. But today we’re going to take a look at the national picture, particularly the early signs about the possibility and nature of carbon reform.

In Obama’s speech, he mentioned that “We are a nation that has seen promise amid peril, and claimed opportunity from ordeal. Now we must be that nation again. That is why, even as it cuts back on the programmes we don’t need, the budget I submit will invest in the three areas that are absolutely critical to our economic future: energy, healthcare and education. It begins with energy.” This is not merely a rhetorical flourish; it does appear as if renewable energy legislation is the first priority for the Democratic administration. Moreover, Congressional leadership seems to be on the same page: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is providing strong indications that energy legislation will be a more immediate priority than even health care reform.

Obama’s specific request, outlined in his speech is that “this Congress to send me legislation that places a market-based cap on carbon pollution and drives the production of more renewable energy in America. And to support that innovation, we will invest $15bn dollars a year to develop technologies like wind power and solar power; advanced biofuels, clean coal and more fuel-efficient cars and trucks built right here in America.” The extent to which Obama is committed to making cap-and-trade legislation a reality, beyond merely calling for an effort to be made, is made even clearer by his incorporation of cap-and-trade revenues into his budget estimates for upcoming years. Budgets are tricky animals, and these stipulations can often be added for political purposes rather than realistic projections. But merely adding the estimate in puts political pressure on Congress to come up with a cap-and-trade plan that will generate meaningful revenues, as otherwise Obama has solid political cover for deficits and running off the budgetary rails. Moreover, his estimates are probably realistic.

Early speculation has overtaken even the drafting of this post, as the creaking engine of modern American governance begins to get moving on the issue. The plan President Obama is currently pushing has 2012 as the date that legislation will come into meaningful force, which is far later than we here at GetSolar would like but is nonetheless cause for modest excitement. Arguments over the cost of the legislation are going to pop up in all sectors, but the political momentum in and party make-up of Washington right now mean that these complaints will probably not be enough to stop the legislation. In other words, it looks safe to say that carbon reform is going to be a legislative reality in the near future.

The exact shape of the legislation that will emerge is, of course, unpredictable. In particular, now that cap-and-trade has won out over a carbon tax, issues such as the distribution of permits and the potency of the restrictions will be at the forefront. Nonetheless, note that these debates will implicitly accept such legislation as a settled question. Therefore, even if all does not go well through the process and ensuing debates, we will see the most meaningful climate change legislation ever passed into law by our government – and most meaningful by several orders of magnitude. And once carbon reform makes it through the pipeline, solar’s merit as an energy source is going to elevate it into the center of the national consciousness.

We’ll be following all of these developments here at the blog and on the site, from the hopeful to the worrying, so stick with us as we try to read the tea leaves for carbon reform in the upcoming months.