Ikea announced today that they are investing tens of millions of dollars to research and development of solar panels and other energy efficiency measures. To put this outlay in comparison, the Department of Energy is putting down $24 million for grid integration improvements.
If, as the article speculates, Ikea is selling solar panels in-store in three to four years’ time, then this could coincide with a major tipping point for the industry. At that time America will be well into an administration, either Democratic or Republican, that will undoubtedly put more focus on climate change than our current one. Technologies will only have improved. Ikea’s solar products could well have the kind of killer-app impact that I talked about earlier as the “solar iPhone”, and spur mainstream adoption of solar technology.
The aspect I’ll be following most closely is how Ikea’s efforts fit in with the larger picture of solar in the home. Ikea will almost certainly not be marketing solar panels that would take the place of a full solar installation. They would instead offer an intermediate step. What will be the cumulative effect of these kinds of intermediate measures - single panels, solar curtains, solar windows, etcetera. Will they tie solar’s hands, and leave it as a niche or novelty product for too long? Or will they spur adoption by allowing consumers and homeowners to get comfortable with the idea of the new technology? In industry terms, will these products be a medium-term perception problem, a long-term investment, or both? The picture isn’t clear yet, but the overall success of solar in the next five to ten years will depend in no small part on how this narrative plays out.
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