Once again, New Jersey’s solar boat has been rocked: due to revisions to a previously approved budget, the state’s Clean Energy Rebate will not accept new applications for the month of April, and all applications currently in queue will be frozen until the program reopens in May. If the solar rebate is reduced from current levels–all too likely–then projects in queue will be approved at the revised (lower) rate.

What does this mean for solar in New Jersey? Hopefully, nothing too dire. When the state ran out of funding for its generous solar rebate a couple years ago, all solar activity ground to a halt for months. And then the state rolled out the market-based SREC program, revitalizing the commercial and industrial solar sectors. The residential market, however, didn’t truly pick back up until the state–then under the leadership of Governor Jon Corzine, a huge solar proponent–reinstated a modest rebate. Combined with the revenue stream provided by SRECs, the reduced solar rebate has been enough to make projects feasible for the average homeowner. In fact, payback periods for home solar installations in New Jersey have been lower than anywhere else in the country due to this unique set of incentives.

If new Governor Chris Christie cuts the solar rebate entirely, my guess is that the industry will once again lose momentum in the residential sector. Relatively predictable income from SRECS make securing bank financing easy, but without the rebate to reduce up-front costs, the solar price tag becomes prohibitive for most home and business owners. The excellent federal tax credit, equal to 30 percent of solar costs, has a direct and positive impact on cash flow but again, does not help with out of pocket expenses.

But if the rebate is reduced to, say, $1/watt? While no numbers have been bandied around as of yet, this is not out of the question–the current rebate has a base level of $1.55/watt for residential systems, with $0.25/watt adders available for home energy audits and systems that utilize New Jersey-made components. $1/w would still offset approximately 15 percent of average system costs. Knock that down a further 30 percent with the federal tax credit, tack on revenue from SREC sales, et voila: financially viable solar will still be available for New Jersey residents.

Christie’s grab for previously earmarked clean energy funds has upset solar professionals, who–understandably–don’t get why one of the only healthy, growing sectors of New Jersey’s economy should be penalized in order to prop up budget shortfalls elsewhere. It may be a long month of waiting for news, but we’ll keep you posted.