Global warming will reduce the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic by the end of the century, reports a new study released yesterday online in the journal Nature Geoscience. A number of scientists have attributed recent increases in Atlantic hurricanes to the warmer waters resulting from climate change, yet research meteorologist Tom Knutson, one of the paper’s leading authors, says his model shows otherwise. The study is attracting so much attention because Knutson, a prominent meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s geophysics fluid dynamics lab, has warned of the effects of anthropogenic climate change in the past.
The full text of the study is available only to Nature subscribers, but luckily news organizations such as the Associated Press (link via Yahoo) and the BBC have already reported some of the most significant figures for us. By the end of the century, Knutson et al. predict that the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic will fall by 18 percent, although the biggest storms—those with wind speeds over 110 mph—would decline in frequency by only eight percent. At the same time, the study posits that the intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms would increase dramatically as well: wind strength would rise by two percent, and rainfall within 30 miles of a hurricane would increase by 37 percent.
The study and its accompanying model, of course, have already both come under fire from critics as well as received many supporters. Knutson says he does not believe that the debate surrounding the effects of man-made climate change on hurricane activity will die out anytime soon—a reasonable assertion, as research procedures have changed much over the years and modeling hurricanes is costly. And herein lies the difficulty of reporting climate science—a topic Andrew Revkin, author of the fantastic New York Times blog Dot Earth, has covered quite extensively and quite well.
Knutson has not, contrary to the claims of the media (mainly the AP, in the article cited above), reversed his opinions on the effects of climate change. According to this talk on NPR in January, he said that there was not enough data to support whether or not global warming would increase hurricane frequency. He has, however, stated that there would be an increase in hurricane intensity, which aligns with the results of his study.
I think that the problem now isn’t whether or not global warming causes more hurricanes to occur. Only time and increased research will answer that question. What the majority of scientists have established, however, is that we are all vulnerable to the effects of climate change to a certain extent, some significantly more so than others. Let’s not ignore the forest for the trees (correct me if I’ve botched the saying!) and look at the bigger questions of how to live a little more sustainably and to allocate limited resources in a growing world.
Cool post, Connie–thanks. Two things come to mind: (1) As you point out, models are good only up to a point. Climate change is such a large challenge, and operates on a such a long timeframe that encompasses a multitude of factors, that’s it’s almost impossible to predict, precisely, what to expect. (2) This second point is perhaps something of an anathema in the popular press, but it remains pretty widely accepted, particularly among economists. Climate change will not only create costs and damages, but it will also create benefits. On the whole, there is clear acceptance that the costs will no doubt exceed the benefits. But if the frequency of hurricanes does, in fact, turn out to wane in the future, that should be taken account of when trying to conceptualize apt policy frameworks. Moreover, confronting the fact that some countries - like Russia and Canada - are likely to benefit from warmer climes (most prominently by receiving a boost to agriculture yields), can only help to improve our understanding of international cooperation/negotiation problem. OK, I think I’ve sufficiently lost my train of thought. Thanks for the post!