The Big Solar Freeze

In the New York Times a couple days ago, there was a deceptively short report on what could turn into a huge issue affecting the future of solar energy in the U.S. The Bureau of Land Management has stopped taking applications from companies looking to build solar installations on cheap public land across the sun-baked Southwest. And while they are not going to take the more than 130 applications currently in process out of process, they’re not going to allow anything to actually be built for two more years. The applications in process are for installations with the potential to power 20 million homes.

Two years, in terms of utility-scale construction, might not seem like very long. And if it were just two years and then the industry could be assured the government would put its stamp of approval on progress and things could move forward as before, that might temper the frustration of this imposed wait. But the reason for the wait, claims the BLM, is that more studies need to be done on the potential environmental impact of solar installations on the deserts that will be their home. I don’t think anyone in the solar industry is especially keen on destroying habitat or misusing water resources, and I’m sure they would incorporate whatever safety measures were necessary into their building plans; but to wait two years before being told if they can build…? This isn’t just a two year stall, clearly. To impose a moratorium like this instead of trying to approach it from a more dynamic angle–such as doing a pilot project with heavy EPA and BLM involvement, or studying international installations in similar climates–puts a real wrench in the chain of solar development in this country.

This does, of course, come at perhaps the worst possible time. We have just started to really build momentum in the solar industry here; our government is finally expressing an interest (even if it’s mostly just lip-service so far) in supporting renewables, the population is finally beginning to demand alternatives, and advances in technology and implementation mean that utility-scale solar can now be cost-competitive with fossil fuel. One way or another, we’ll be going into next winter with debilitatingly high oil prices. It would be nice to comfort ourselves with the thought that our government was doing everything possible to lessen that burden…but that’s a comfort we won’t have.

Yes, it would be irresponsible not to study the impact of installations on public land; but I think it is perhaps more irresponsible to neglect to develop what is currently the best and most expedient solution to the energy crisis. If our government had not been obdurately against developing renewables, these studies would have been done years ago; as it is, the solar industry now has to deal with this in addition to Congressional reluctance to extend the renewable energy tax credit:

The moratorium, combined with an end to tax credits, would deal a double blow to an industry that, solar advocates say, has experienced significant growth without major environmental problems. (NYT)

Private land is still available–large companies that can more easily absorb the cost of higher real estate will likely go ahead, though the energy they produce might not be as competitively priced as it would have been from a plant that cost less to build. The real problem is small companies who were depending on cheap land to make their installations financially sound. We’ll see what happens. This is a young and flexible industry, and it might not slow things down as much as everyone is fearing. And with a regime change coming in January, who knows what might happen. I believe the phrase “stay tuned” applies.