The Solar Phoenix

The New Republic’s “Environment and Energy” Blog is rapidly becoming my favorite source on the web for green, clean energy, clean-tech, and renewables news - these guys write short, excellent pieces, and I hope they continue doing what they’re doing. In a post today called “Here Comes the Silicon”, the blog writers rightfully point to the end of the silicon supply shortage, which is great news for the solar industry, which obviously relies heavily on silicon for the production of photovoltaic panels. The piece points out the weight that’s being lifted, as “continually increasing production costs are a body blow to an important industry not yet at scale.” What’s especially interesting about the end of the shortage, though, is that the delay might be good from a public-relations standpoint.

Since 2005, a huge amount of advances have been made in solar technology, but due to the silicon shortage limiting the production capacity for old technology, let alone often-higher-investment new initiatives, these technological innovations have mostly been of interest to people who follow the industry closely. Yet when the silicon supply comes back with a vengeance, the solar industry will not only grow, fill existing demand, and be able to cut production costs, it will also be able to take advantage of higher-investment, cutting-edge technologies that have been lying around ready to be implemented in a large enough scale to make solar both more efficient and more cost-effective. In short, the aggregate effect of this in combination - years of stunted technological implementation combined with a very high level of experimental and theoretical improvements means we could see solar prices drop in a big way, so noticeable and dramatic that big-time media, and by extension mainstream consumers, will have to take notice. The end result is that solar, for the price of a couple years of limbo, will be able to turn on the jets at just the right moment to capitalize on a world that’s finally coming around to the attitude of embracing climate change reform.

Even if the ultimate optimistic scenario doesn’t pan out, though, at least the silicon shortage is heading to a close, and hopefully won’t return in the near future. That’s more than enough good news, though it is fun to speculate as to how dramatic a reversal this could be.