Trouble on the Colorado

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

New York Times; MSNBC

Since the conservation movement really got going in the 1960s, one of the most pressing issues has been that of control of the Colorado River watershed. The regions that depend on this watershed are many and varied, and cross several state lines. Due to the natural aridity of much of the Southwest, the Colorado has always represented tremendous value for the miners, ranchers, and urban planners who have built lives anywhere near it. The building of dams has been hotly contentious, as has the piping away of fresh water to places like Las Vegas. Yet the water supply has always seemed nigh inexhaustible. A new study of a lake in the watershed finally has the warning bell tolling loudly enough for everyone to hear.

Lake Mead, one of the two major reservoirs of the Colorado River watershed (the other is Lake Powell), is the major water source for both Phoenix and Las Vegas. The Scripps Institution of Oceanography, based out of UC San Diego, has just released a report that indicated Lake Mead might be completely dry by 2021. Yep. That’s less than fifteen years from now.

CCL: William Klos

The researchers are citing anthropogenic climate change, regional abuse of the water supply, and a natural cycle of drought as the primary reasons for this drastic change. And this change is not just something that will affect a national resource–it will affect most of the population in the Southwest. And it doesn’t stop there. Looking at the bigger picture,

The researchers “note that a number of other studies in recent years have estimated that climate change will lead to reductions in runoff to the Colorado River system. Those analyses consistently forecast reductions of between 10 and 30 percent over the next 30 to 50 years, which could affect the water supply of between 12 and 36 million people.” [Scripps]

While the Scripps Institution stresses the importance of changing water consumption and use habits immediately, the researchers reserve judgment on whether or not usage pattern changes will be enough to stop Lake Mead from going dry. We are seeing, again and again, that our daily habits, our larger choices in managing our environment, and the natural patterns of climate change are intertwined and deeply related. If the Southwest loses one of its major water supplies, and the Colorado River one of its only real buffers from the human populations that so depend on it, we’ll see a lot more than behavioral change. We’ll be seeing a national catastrophe.